Does email still work, and is SMS going the same way?

We'll call this a Part II to this previous post, and also a bit of a 'Ghost of Christmas Future' situation. The same message blindness issue I mentioned about SMS marketing has been the case in email for a while, because most emails look, roughly, like this:

For retargeting messages, this looks like: header image -> brief explainer -> CTA -> Features or Social Proof.

You'll then get dropped on a drip program that mixes up the messaging, and maybe a newsletter that shares some helpful articles on the topic.

The difference versus SMS marketing is that most marketing emails today look good. They're well designed, and mobile friendly . They're usually image heavy, in a color contrasting template that fits the brand. This is the nature of the format (there's not much design to do in a text), but I think its also due to collective experience: we've been doing marketing emails as an industry for a few decades now, and the styles and toolsets are pretty well settled.

The problem I've found is that, more and more, it doesn't work. Even good, beautiful, persuasive outreach gets ignored if it shows up in a flood of similar messages inside what's just become another ad channel (your inbox).

For a while you could break through with plain text, personalized outreach, or a unique offer. We'll still try all this because it costs next to nothing, but we're seeing response rates on email at <1/10th the level of text or phone outreach for some of the consumer products & services we support. For example, here's what we see in total response rates by channel for one category, where SMS conversations in particular lead the way:

There are many answers about why (email quantity, engrained behavior, move off the desktop), but I wonder at this point if email will ever be more than an 'also ran' – another channel you'll us by default, but don't expect much from – and if SMS marketing is heading the same direction as marketers get more prolific.